is it time for stena/irish ferries to operate a single service ex rosslare

Started by market knowledge, January 01, 2017, 12:18:31 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

corkbuoy

Quote from: Niall on February 11, 2017, 10:36:03 PM
A major problem with Swansea was with tidal restrictions. Transport links to Ringaskiddy are pretty limited also.

Another post talking nonsense about Ringaskiddy.

Kieran

Quote from: corkbuoy on February 11, 2017, 10:43:43 PM
Quote from: Niall on February 11, 2017, 10:36:03 PM
A major problem with Swansea was with tidal restrictions. Transport links to Ringaskiddy are pretty limited also.

Another post talking nonsense about Ringaskiddy.

True, road access to Ringa is as good as (if not better) than Rosslare. They would want to be considering the amount of industry in that part of the harbour.

Steven

Quote from: corkbuoy on February 11, 2017, 01:07:41 PM
Quote from: Steven on February 10, 2017, 04:33:46 AM
Quote from: corkbuoy on February 09, 2017, 06:32:39 PM
What is it with the same few on this site that like to dumb down the Port of Cork over the years?
I'm at risk of sounding rather harsh here, but it's called being objective. 

Either the demand to sustain a viable service is there or it isn't, at the present time indications are it isn't, and more so by the day as the shift towards Dublin continues.  We'd all love to see a thriving ferry service on our doorstep, but the realities of the world mean that isn't going to happen.  Ask the people of Dun Laoghaire or Larne for example.  It wasn't so long ago that Larne was the busiest ferry port on the whole of the island of Ireland and Dun Laoghaire was Ireland's gateway to the UK!  Dun Laoghaire no longer has any ferry service, and Larne is a shadow of its former self with 2 ships operating to Cairnryan.

In all fairness Steven, that reads like objective to bias to me.
So anyone who doesn't think Cork is the greatest place ever is biased then?  If the market was right and the facilities in place then I'm sure operators would have been queuing up.  They weren't and now uncertainty in the industry on a UK-Ireland level is much increased.  Don't get me wrong, as someone already said (Paddy?), freight will still need to move between the UK and Ireland, but will the growth needed to keep a new service viable be there?  Rosslare isn't exactly rammed year round as things stand.  There are many factors against a service from Cork to the UK as has already been discussed (and there are possibly others), not least distance. 

Of course the distance/crossing time penalty can be overcome with faster vessels, but that means much higher running costs.  If you read what I have written without your "Cork is the greatest place on earth" hat on, you will see that I have suggested perhaps a roro freight service could be an option.  This is exactly what was done with Belfast - Liverpool to build up steady all year round trade, before ropax vessels were acquired to enable passengers to be carried (a bonus income).  That was a service running to the largest population centre in "the north" to one of the most populous regions in the UK.   Personally I see Cork as the best hope for a service to Spain due to its location - Corks weakness as a port to the UK is a strength with regard to a potential Spanish service IMO.

Until the UK and EU sort out their current tiff I doubt anyone is going to be willing to risk a new service, especially if they need to get funding from the banks in order to do so (I.e they aren't part of a large global Swedish empire with its own significant resources and no shareholders to answer to).  How do you put forward a business case when nobody knows what the trading relationship between Ireland, the UK, and the wider EU is going to look like in even 2 years time?!?


As for predatory pricing etc being responsible for Swansea - Cork not still running (and I know emotions run high on this issue, and don't intend to upset anyone), I think that though a factor, that's a rather simplistic view to take.  Firstly, should that not have been taken into account in the original business plan?  It would be rather naive to expect the other operators to not react to a threat.  If there was enough trade there to go around and enough businesses and people were crying out for a direct link from Swansea then why would it be an issue in any case?  Likewise if there isn't enough trade to go around then why shouldn't the current operators defend their businesses (and their employees jobs)?  It happens in every other industry.  Personally I believe Julia was the wrong vessel, never a good start to a service.  Swansea probably wasn't the best port either due to its restrictions.  Hopefully if another startup operator does come along, those lessons (and others) will have been learned.
Steve in Belfast (suburbia)

Flickr: www.flickr.com/tarbyonline

corkbuoy

Quote from: Steven on February 13, 2017, 02:04:43 PM
Quote from: corkbuoy on February 11, 2017, 01:07:41 PM
Quote from: Steven on February 10, 2017, 04:33:46 AM
Quote from: corkbuoy on February 09, 2017, 06:32:39 PM
What is it with the same few on this site that like to dumb down the Port of Cork over the years?
I'm at risk of sounding rather harsh here, but it's called being objective. 

Either the demand to sustain a viable service is there or it isn't, at the present time indications are it isn't, and more so by the day as the shift towards Dublin continues.  We'd all love to see a thriving ferry service on our doorstep, but the realities of the world mean that isn't going to happen.  Ask the people of Dun Laoghaire or Larne for example.  It wasn't so long ago that Larne was the busiest ferry port on the whole of the island of Ireland and Dun Laoghaire was Ireland's gateway to the UK!  Dun Laoghaire no longer has any ferry service, and Larne is a shadow of its former self with 2 ships operating to Cairnryan.

In all fairness Steven, that reads like objective to bias to me.
So anyone who doesn't think Cork is the greatest place ever is biased then?  If the market was right and the facilities in place then I'm sure operators would have been queuing up.  They weren't and now uncertainty in the industry on a UK-Ireland level is much increased.  Don't get me wrong, as someone already said (Paddy?), freight will still need to move between the UK and Ireland, but will the growth needed to keep a new service viable be there?  Rosslare isn't exactly rammed year round as things stand.  There are many factors against a service from Cork to the UK as has already been discussed (and there are possibly others), not least distance. 

Of course the distance/crossing time penalty can be overcome with faster vessels, but that means much higher running costs.  If you read what I have written without your "Cork is the greatest place on earth" hat on, you will see that I have suggested perhaps a roro freight service could be an option.  This is exactly what was done with Belfast - Liverpool to build up steady all year round trade, before ropax vessels were acquired to enable passengers to be carried (a bonus income).  That was a service running to the largest population centre in "the north" to one of the most populous regions in the UK.   Personally I see Cork as the best hope for a service to Spain due to its location - Corks weakness as a port to the UK is a strength with regard to a potential Spanish service IMO.

Until the UK and EU sort out their current tiff I doubt anyone is going to be willing to risk a new service, especially if they need to get funding from the banks in order to do so (I.e they aren't part of a large global Swedish empire with its own significant resources and no shareholders to answer to).  How do you put forward a business case when nobody knows what the trading relationship between Ireland, the UK, and the wider EU is going to look like in even 2 years time?!?


As for predatory pricing etc being responsible for Swansea - Cork not still running (and I know emotions run high on this issue, and don't intend to upset anyone), I think that though a factor, that's a rather simplistic view to take.  Firstly, should that not have been taken into account in the original business plan?  It would be rather naive to expect the other operators to not react to a threat.  If there was enough trade there to go around and enough businesses and people were crying out for a direct link from Swansea then why would it be an issue in any case?  Likewise if there isn't enough trade to go around then why shouldn't the current operators defend their businesses (and their employees jobs)?  It happens in every other industry.  Personally I believe Julia was the wrong vessel, never a good start to a service.  Swansea probably wasn't the best port either due to its restrictions.  Hopefully if another startup operator does come along, those lessons (and others) will have been learned.

It's great to have such an expert on this site; In time, I must remember to tell the new Cork-UK ferry operator run their plans by you first, just to make sure they're watertight and all that.

Kieran

Quote from: corkbuoy on February 13, 2017, 07:30:58 PM
It's great to have such an expert on this site; In time, I must remember to tell the new Cork-UK ferry operator run their plans by you first, just to make sure they're watertight and all that.

Hang on, i'm all for debate, which this has been. That response however, is unfair.

The fact is Cork - UK didn't work for Fastnet (for various reasons, already covered). Steven has suggested a way to redevelop the route. I'm not so sure you grasp the investment and cost of actually doing it (assuming you could find a ship in the first place).

If you just want to post snarky replies, I'll lock the thread.

corkbuoy

Quote from: Kieran on February 13, 2017, 08:31:53 PM
Quote from: corkbuoy on February 13, 2017, 07:30:58 PM
It's great to have such an expert on this site; In time, I must remember to tell the new Cork-UK ferry operator run their plans by you first, just to make sure they're watertight and all that.

Hang on, i'm all for debate, which this has been. That response however, is unfair.

The fact is Cork - UK didn't work for Fastnet (for various reasons, already covered). Steven has suggested a way to redevelop the route. I'm not so sure you grasp the investment and cost of actually doing it (assuming you could find a ship in the first place).

If you just want to post snarky replies, I'll lock the thread.

What's good for the goose is good for the gander & what gives you the insight as to whether I grasp the economics of this nature or not?

Please outline?

I'm all for discussion, on a peer to peer basis, not to be spoken down to by the same 2 or 3 posters here who seem to know it all.


PaddyL

As I think I said before Fastnet's problem (passenger pricing wise at least) was that the market didn't properly value the night onboard which meant that the cheaper prices elsewhere created a perception that Swansea - Cork was overpriced.  In reality it was probably similar value for money all things factored in but the public didn't see it that way and 6 years on I find it hard to see how this conundrum will be any easier.

Kieran

Quote from: corkbuoy on February 13, 2017, 09:46:47 PM
I'm all for discussion, on a peer to peer basis, not to be spoken down to by the same 2 or 3 posters here who seem to know it all.

Then back up what your saying, don't argue (and say "not true"), debate and discuss.

Quote from: PaddyL on February 14, 2017, 11:13:48 AM
As I think I said before Fastnet's problem (passenger pricing wise at least) was that the market didn't properly value the night onboard which meant that the cheaper prices elsewhere created a perception that Swansea - Cork was overpriced.  In reality it was probably similar value for money all things factored in but the public didn't see it that way and 6 years on I find it hard to see how this conundrum will be any easier.

True, I think from a passanger point of view, it looked more expensive than it was. As I said, the crossing length skews everything here.

Fastnet also focused heavily on passanger traffic (wright or wrong, that's another debate), but the Julia lacked the freight space to make the route work year round...but hey, hindsight is a great thing!

corkbuoy

Quote from: Kieran on February 14, 2017, 03:27:49 PM
Quote from: corkbuoy on February 13, 2017, 09:46:47 PM
I'm all for discussion, on a peer to peer basis, not to be spoken down to by the same 2 or 3 posters here who seem to know it all.

Then back up what your saying, don't argue (and say "not true"), debate and discuss.

Quote from: PaddyL on February 14, 2017, 11:13:48 AM
As I think I said before Fastnet's problem (passenger pricing wise at least) was that the market didn't properly value the night onboard which meant that the cheaper prices elsewhere created a perception that Swansea - Cork was overpriced.  In reality it was probably similar value for money all things factored in but the public didn't see it that way and 6 years on I find it hard to see how this conundrum will be any easier.

True, I think from a passanger point of view, it looked more expensive than it was. As I said, the crossing length skews everything here.

Fastnet also focused heavily on passanger traffic (wright or wrong, that's another debate), but the Julia lacked the freight space to make the route work year round...but hey, hindsight is a great thing!

Please delete my profile/account, I've had enough of the groupthink from ye lot.

Niall

Quote from: corkbuoy on February 14, 2017, 05:26:21 PM
Quote from: Kieran on February 14, 2017, 03:27:49 PM
Quote from: corkbuoy on February 13, 2017, 09:46:47 PM
I'm all for discussion, on a peer to peer basis, not to be spoken down to by the same 2 or 3 posters here who seem to know it all.

Then back up what your saying, don't argue (and say "not true"), debate and discuss.

Quote from: PaddyL on February 14, 2017, 11:13:48 AM
As I think I said before Fastnet's problem (passenger pricing wise at least) was that the market didn't properly value the night onboard which meant that the cheaper prices elsewhere created a perception that Swansea - Cork was overpriced.  In reality it was probably similar value for money all things factored in but the public didn't see it that way and 6 years on I find it hard to see how this conundrum will be any easier.

True, I think from a passanger point of view, it looked more expensive than it was. As I said, the crossing length skews everything here.

Fastnet also focused heavily on passanger traffic (wright or wrong, that's another debate), but the Julia lacked the freight space to make the route work year round...but hey, hindsight is a great thing!

Please delete my profile/account, I've had enough of the groupthink from ye lot.

Steven has vast experience working in the ferry industry and is very familiar with the operations and economics of ferry operations out of Ireland.

Steven

Quote from: Kieran on February 14, 2017, 03:27:49 PM
Quote from: corkbuoy on February 13, 2017, 09:46:47 PM
I'm all for discussion, on a peer to peer basis, not to be spoken down to by the same 2 or 3 posters here who seem to know it all.

Then back up what your saying, don't argue (and say "not true"), debate and discuss.

Quote from: PaddyL on February 14, 2017, 11:13:48 AM
As I think I said before Fastnet's problem (passenger pricing wise at least) was that the market didn't properly value the night onboard which meant that the cheaper prices elsewhere created a perception that Swansea - Cork was overpriced.  In reality it was probably similar value for money all things factored in but the public didn't see it that way and 6 years on I find it hard to see how this conundrum will be any easier.

True, I think from a passanger point of view, it looked more expensive than it was. As I said, the crossing length skews everything here.

Fastnet also focused heavily on passanger traffic (wright or wrong, that's another debate), but the Julia lacked the freight space to make the route work year round...but hey, hindsight is a great thing!
Exactly, this is why I thought Julia was the wrong vessel.  Thats before even factoring in the running and maintenance costs of such a vessel as well. Passengers are great in that they (hopefully) spend money onboard, but there are a lot of costs involved in carrying 'self-loading cargo' as well.  Particularly when the service runs year round but the passenger demand is heavily concentrated across a few months but there is little to no freight travelling to soak up some of the operational costs.  In such a scenario it is likely that passenger ticket prices will need to be higher in order to cover the losses during the quieter months.  Which brings us nicely back to whether Stena and Irish Ferries would be best merging their operation (again).  It could be said there is a strong argument that one ship (Inishmore for example) would be ample in all but the busiest periods of the year.


Quote from: corkbuoy on February 14, 2017, 05:26:21 PM
Please delete my profile/account, I've had enough of the groupthink from ye lot.

A shame.  Maybe he will be back once he has calmed down a bit.

Quote from: Niall on February 14, 2017, 06:04:03 PM
Steven has vast experience working in the ferry industry and is very familiar with the operations and economics of ferry operations out of Ireland.

Thank you for the kind words, but they rather flatter me. Whilst I have a familiarity with some of the economics and operations (and knowledge of how business decisions are made), I don't have vast experience of working IN the ferry industry.



Anyway, please don't let the episode above deter anyone from continuing to discuss the Southern Corridor.  After all, this is one of the few ferry forums left that has some measure of decent debate and discussion left!
Steve in Belfast (suburbia)

Flickr: www.flickr.com/tarbyonline

Kieran

Quote from: Steven on February 14, 2017, 09:16:19 PM
Which brings us nicely back to whether Stena and Irish Ferries would be best merging their operation (again).  It could be said there is a strong argument that one ship (Inishmore for example) would be ample in all but the busiest periods of the year.
Well, lets say Inishmore provides a one ship service year round as part of a joint venture, I'm sure Stena could find something to provide extra capacity for the summer months (and use it for refit cover in the winter). Wait, why didn't I think of that sooner?!?

Quote from: Steven on February 14, 2017, 09:16:19 PM
Quote from: corkbuoy on February 14, 2017, 05:26:21 PM
Please delete my profile/account, I've had enough of the groupthink from ye lot.

A shame.  Maybe he will be back once he has calmed down a bit.
As I said, I have no problem with people debating anything (within reason!) on here, but I needs to be explained and backed up with facts. I really don't want to have to go around locking threads and banning members.

Quote from: Steven on February 14, 2017, 09:16:19 PM
Quote from: Niall on February 14, 2017, 06:04:03 PM
Steven has vast experience working in the ferry industry and is very familiar with the operations and economics of ferry operations out of Ireland.

Thank you for the kind words, but they rather flatter me. Whilst I have a familiarity with some of the economics and operations (and knowledge of how business decisions are made), I don't have vast experience of working IN the ferry industry.

Niall, you win a high five! There are a fair few people on here (aswell as Steven) that know far more about the industry than I, and a few that work in it. I don't think people need to disclose what they do, it's reasonably obvious from reading replies when people know what they are talking about.

Niall

Quote from: Kieran on February 14, 2017, 09:50:15 PM
Quote from: Steven on February 14, 2017, 09:16:19 PM
Which brings us nicely back to whether Stena and Irish Ferries would be best merging their operation (again).  It could be said there is a strong argument that one ship (Inishmore for example) would be ample in all but the busiest periods of the year.
Well, lets say Inishmore provides a one ship service year round as part of a joint venture, I'm sure Stena could find something to provide extra capacity for the summer months (and use it for refit cover in the winter). Wait, why didn't I think of that sooner?!?

First of all would IF and Stena be prepared to enter into such an agreement. Also Rosslare and Fishguard need to be upgraded. Fishguard would require a 2 tier linkspan installed. Also new foot passenger gangways would need to be installed at both ports. Then there are the peak periods when a second ship would be required. Are we looking at a RoRo vessel or a RoPax ship. Another thing to bare in mind is the management of Rosslare harbour.

Steven

Quote from: Niall on February 15, 2017, 12:01:24 PM
Quote from: Kieran on February 14, 2017, 09:50:15 PM
Quote from: Steven on February 14, 2017, 09:16:19 PM
Which brings us nicely back to whether Stena and Irish Ferries would be best merging their operation (again).  It could be said there is a strong argument that one ship (Inishmore for example) would be ample in all but the busiest periods of the year.
Well, lets say Inishmore provides a one ship service year round as part of a joint venture, I'm sure Stena could find something to provide extra capacity for the summer months (and use it for refit cover in the winter). Wait, why didn't I think of that sooner?!?

First of all would IF and Stena be prepared to enter into such an agreement. Also Rosslare and Fishguard need to be upgraded. Fishguard would require a 2 tier linkspan installed. Also new foot passenger gangways would need to be installed at both ports. Then there are the peak periods when a second ship would be required. Are we looking at a RoRo vessel or a RoPax ship. Another thing to bare in mind is the management of Rosslare harbour.
Such a service probably wouldn't use 2 separate ports at the Welsh end, though neither port is perfect.  I'd imagine a second vessel would need to be a RoPax as the peak demand is on the passenger side (Ireland v Wales rugby internationals spring to mind), though in a few years time will that demand still be there with more and more people using the airlines?  Foot passenger gangways are not a necessity, and as for two tier loading it would depend on the vessel involved and the turnaround times.  Of course, this is all speculation and it would need both companies to be willing to make such an arrangement work (or for one agree to step aside - perhaps in exchange for some form of compensation).
Steve in Belfast (suburbia)

Flickr: www.flickr.com/tarbyonline

Niall

Quote from: Steven on February 15, 2017, 02:33:46 PM
Quote from: Niall on February 15, 2017, 12:01:24 PM
Quote from: Kieran on February 14, 2017, 09:50:15 PM
Quote from: Steven on February 14, 2017, 09:16:19 PM
Which brings us nicely back to whether Stena and Irish Ferries would be best merging their operation (again).  It could be said there is a strong argument that one ship (Inishmore for example) would be ample in all but the busiest periods of the year.
Well, lets say Inishmore provides a one ship service year round as part of a joint venture, I'm sure Stena could find something to provide extra capacity for the summer months (and use it for refit cover in the winter). Wait, why didn't I think of that sooner?!?

First of all would IF and Stena be prepared to enter into such an agreement. Also Rosslare and Fishguard need to be upgraded. Fishguard would require a 2 tier linkspan installed. Also new foot passenger gangways would need to be installed at both ports. Then there are the peak periods when a second ship would be required. Are we looking at a RoRo vessel or a RoPax ship. Another thing to bare in mind is the management of Rosslare harbour.
Such a service probably wouldn't use 2 separate ports at the Welsh end, though neither port is perfect.  I'd imagine a second vessel would need to be a RoPax as the peak demand is on the passenger side (Ireland v Wales rugby internationals spring to mind), though in a few years time will that demand still be there with more and more people using the airlines?  Foot passenger gangways are not a necessity, and as for two tier loading it would depend on the vessel involved and the turnaround times.  Of course, this is all speculation and it would need both companies to be willing to make such an arrangement work (or for one agree to step aside - perhaps in exchange for some form of compensation).

I suppose logic would success that Stena would step away from Fishguard and allow IF to operate the route with the Inishmore. My guess is nothing will happen for a few years until around 2025 when Stena Europe is expected to finish her career with Stena.