how can stena out strategise irish ferries at holyhead

[market knowledge]

when the new ships arrive from if
then if will have 2 superior ships
current growth is in unaccompanied movements
if stena put a freight only ship on with clever timings could this be next step

[Steven]

when the new ships arrive from if
then if will have 2 superior ships
current growth is in unaccompanied movements
if stena put a freight only ship on with clever timings could this be next step

I wouldn't rule out a 3rd vessel if the right vessel can be found and the correct timings worked out so slots are available in both ports.  I'd assume it would be an unaccompanied service though if it did happen, at least initially, and something with a smaller capacity than the current vessels for turnaround purposes.  I wouldn't write off Stena just yet in any case, though ideally they'd have ordered something a bit bigger and for delivery sooner than the E-Flexers for Holyhead.

Edit: now I've thought about it for a few minutes I doubt there is any need for an additional passenger service anyway.  However an unaccompanied service could free up more space on Adventurer and X for accompanied traffic, as is the case on the Birkenhead run.

[Matt73]

when the new ships arrive from if
then if will have 2 superior ships
current growth is in unaccompanied movements
if stena put a freight only ship on with clever timings could this be next step

I wouldn't rule out a 3rd vessel if the right vessel can be found and the correct timings worked out so slots are available in both ports.  I'd assume it would be an unaccompanied service though if it did happen, at least initially, and something with a smaller capacity than the current vessels for turnaround purposes.  I wouldn't write off Stena just yet in any case, though ideally they'd have ordered something a bit bigger and for delivery sooner than the E-Flexers for Holyhead.

Edit: now I've thought about it for a few minutes I doubt there is any need for an additional passenger service anyway.  However an unaccompanied service could free up more space on Adventurer and X for accompanied traffic, as is the case on the Birkenhead run.

Steven's right, don't write off Stena!  I can well remember reading in Ferry and Cruise Review's predecessor (European Ferry Scene) that it was basically game over for Stena once the big U was on the scene.  Then the current Stena Adventurer appeared in response and the criticism disappeared. I have no doubt that Stena are watching Irish Ferries' very closely.  They have plenty of time to take action and I feel sure that one of the E-Flexers will be part of that.  They stretched the Adventurer's sister, the old Stena Britannica (now Scandinavica) to deal with growth on Harwich-Hook in 2007 and then built the current Harwich-Hook monsters.  Who's to say they won't alter the design of one or more of the E-Flexers yet to be built?  Or, maybe their forecasts are right and Irish Ferries' are wrong?  The possibilities are endless and their business isn't exactly on the skids. 

What is certain is that it's a really interesting time on the Irish Sea.

Matt

[TC]

I agree. I wouldn't write off Stena. Irish Ferries could well re-assess the situation and simply replace Oscar Wilde with Ulysses at Rosslare, and replace Epsilon - as indicated with W.B. Yeats, leaving the 2020 Flensburger ship operate in lieu of Ulysses at Holyhead.

I just can't see Irish Ferries keeping Oscar Wilde beyond 2020. She'll be 33 years old! Swift's replacement may well stick around beyond 2020, but I'd be very skeptical about OW remaining in the fleet. ICG may well charter her out, or simply sell her on to an Italian operator - Moby Lines etc.

I think Stena will counter Irish Ferries at Holyhead, rather than Birkenhead. Setting up a Dublin - Birkenhead route would most certainly sour relations with Seatruck, not forgetting P&O. Like Stena, DP World have deep pockets, and they do invest if they deem it neccessary. Pride of Dover and Pride of Calais could have sailed on for another five or six years, but given the capacity issues, the decision was taken, with DP World permission, to order new ships.

There could well be a shake-up at P&O, and four very large, freight vessels be ordered / acquired, two going to Dublin and two going to Hull. Additionally, P&O have shown ability in the past co-ordinating with companies like Kund E. Hansen, to desing very versatile and practical freight / passenger vessels which can operate with ease in most ports - notably European Highlander, Causeway and Ambassador.

A series similar to the Stena E-Flexer's could well be ordered. Two could go to Hull (with the correct port up-grades), two could go to Dover (with fewer cabins), and two could go to Dublin to Liverpool - with limited passenger facilities.

[IFPete]

There are a lot of unknowns.

Lets see how Brittany Ferries get on with Ireland - Spain Route. There could be room for competition form Stena or Irish Ferries in the longer term.

Ulysses will stay at Holyhead, she is not suited to long haul travel in her current configuration and is too big for most routes except perhaps Dover - Calais or Gothenburg - Fredrickshaven if Stena were to lease her or purchase her.

Oscar Wilde will spend the next two winters in extended lay-up so her wear and tear will be minimised.

Lets see how Westpack express settles in on the irish sea. I am hoping she will be more reliable and flexable than the swift given her extended length and experience of her handling en-route to Belfast from Japan.

[NathanBrady]

I think dey should do a really big boat to liverpool for trucks

[Steven]

To be honest, as things stand, I think ICG appear to have put Stena into a position were it will be difficult to counter, at least in terms of tonnage.  Saying that, ICG have also put themselves into the position were they need the market to keep growing in order to fill their new ships.  Obviously that's a calculated risk, but it's still a risk nonetheless.  Adventurer and Superfast X are still decent ships, though if speculation is to be believed X will be replaced by a new build around the beginning of 2020.  Adventurer can be improved, you only have to look at her as-built sister to see that, though her age might go against that (mind you vessels are staying service in Northern Europe much longer than they would have previously, just look at what was spent on Spirit and Vision quite late in their lives)! 

Stena of course also have very deep pockets so I wouldn't rule out a price war of sorts either, especially if the market doesn't continue to grow and the two companies need to fight for traffic.

[IFPete]

Given Adventures length and the restrictions at Dublin it would be hard to see her being lengthened just like the Ulysses, however we live in interesting times.

[Steven]

Given Adventures length and the restrictions at Dublin it would be hard to see her being lengthened just like the Ulysses, however we live in interesting times.

Plenty can be done without lengthening though, just look at Stena Superfast VII/VIII for example.  Adventurer with a vessel of similar capacity would probably be more than enough considering the amount of capacity that's already being added, at least for a few years.  With regard to more serious structural changes such as lengthening or adding decks, It depends on what was allowed for in the original design, but as she's a Stena design chances are there's quite a bit of flexibility there and not just a case of having to do the same as with her sister. 

I suspect the issue with lengthening Ulysses might be a little more complex than just her overall length though.  I'm no marine architect but draught for example may or may not be affected and there's also her overall seakeeping to be considered.  It wouldn't be the first time a vessel has been "ruined" in that respect by an ill conceived extension, though with modern modelling it's easier to spot these issues before any physical work is done.

As an aside, we are assuming here that the new IF ships are going to be absolutely amazing and better than anything Stena can counter with.  I don't doubt the ability of the chosen yard and interior architects, but it's perhaps worth remembering that this is the first time FSG and their partners have built a large RoPax, though they have an enviable track record with RoRo's.