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Author Topic: is it time for stena/irish ferries to operate a single service ex rosslare  (Read 9319 times)

Steven

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Re: is it time for stena/irish ferries to operate a single service ex rosslare
« Reply #45 on: February 15, 2017, 05:19:34 PM »
Much would depend on who was prepared to compromise and what the plans are elsewhere.  In any case, I wouldn't be surprised to see Europe replaced in 2020 when the E-Flexer's are in service (if all goes to plan).  Life extension or not, ships of her age are not cheap to keep in service.  Theres bound to be some sort of fleet reshuffle, particularly with Lagan and Mersey going spare.  SSF VII/VIII will also be released, and though they are only on charter Stena have spent a heck of a lot of money on them.  Thats before we consider that Tallink could have trouble selling on 2 ageing (they'll be about 20 years old by that stage) fuel-hungry day-ferries of that size  - who knows what sort of deal could be done and what they could in turn free up?  I doubt we will see them at Rosslare themselves though.  Then theres the Welsh ports themselves - neither of them is ideal, though establishing any new facility wont be cheap either.  Theres also the bigger picture, particularly the impact of Brexit, to consider.  If more trade goes direct to France rather than through the UK then it follows that Southern Corridor demand may reduce.  What makes sense at present may not in just a few years time!

Edit:  I unkindly added 10 years on to the age of the superfasts.  Must type slower.....
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 06:07:13 PM by Steven »
Steve in Belfast (suburbia)

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Niall

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Re: is it time for stena/irish ferries to operate a single service ex rosslare
« Reply #46 on: February 15, 2017, 09:36:32 PM »
Regarding brexit how will that impact on the central corridor routes?

Steven

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Re: is it time for stena/irish ferries to operate a single service ex rosslare
« Reply #47 on: February 16, 2017, 10:09:43 PM »
Regarding brexit how will that impact on the central corridor routes?
Nobody knows, is the short answer.  A lot depends on what brexit looks like.  We can however look at some hypothetical situations. (I'll try to wear my neutral hat :) )

At present the UK relies a lot on agriculture in particular from Ireland (North and South) as well as other imports.  A significant (and increasing) amount of trade from the North also moves through the central corridor.  Slap on tariffs (and customs checks, etc) and it no longer makes sense for that trade in particular to move through Dublin over say the routes straight from Warrenpoint and Belfast to England.  Then theres traffic from Ireland bound for the continent - if it faces checks and duties leaving Ireland and again when leaving the UK, Ireland to France could see a lot of growth.  It is not unusual for traffic from NI to pass through Dublin and the UK mainland bound for France either - that could potentially get very expensive!!!  (I have some numbers later on in this rather lengthy post)

If, however, the trading and customs relationship between the UK and Ireland remains more or less the same there probably wont be much effect.  It is also worth taking into account that people still need to eat, and the UK can only supply so much of its own food at present, so in all likelihood will still rely on importing food (which will be more expensive to buy so there would likely be some effect on volumes).   

Everything depends on what the politicians negotiate and what concessions both "sides" are willing to give.  Of the 28 EU countries, the UK and Ireland probably have potentially the most to lose from Brexit IMO.

Anyway, here some numbers from a quick google search (and so I am relying on the analysis of the website - I'm no economist!).

Some 40% of all food exports from Ireland go to the UK.  Of the 60% of Irish exports that go to the EU, over a quarter (16% of total Irish exports) goes to the UK.  For comparison 5% of all exports go to France, the only other direct passenger ferry destination (and a significantly longer route in terms of time taken to the other biggest EU destinations listed below than passing through the UK, as would direct services to say Zeebrugge).  Surprisingly to me, it seems Belgium is the second largest EU export destination for Irish goods (14% of all exports), followed by Germany (7% of all exports).  The US is the largest export destination for Irish goods, despite Ireland being bound by the same EU rules that brexiters claim are holding the UK's own exports to the US back [my neutral hat slipped off for a second  ::)]! (stats taken from http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/exports).  On the flip-side, the same website says some 34% of all imports to Ireland come from the UK http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/imports), so it is very much a two-way trading relationship which both countries stand to lose a lot from. 

In summary, Brexit may have little or no impact on the central corridor routes.  Or it could have a significant impact (and not just on the central corridor either).  Sorry for the long post!
Steve in Belfast (suburbia)

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Davy Jones

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Re: is it time for stena/irish ferries to operate a single service ex rosslare
« Reply #48 on: February 16, 2017, 10:31:53 PM »
.......and of course, trading history between the UK and Ireland goes back way before the European Union was ever thought of. Yes there may be a few minor changes but I'm sure the logistics industry will adapt accordingly.

Steven

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Re: is it time for stena/irish ferries to operate a single service ex rosslare
« Reply #49 on: February 17, 2017, 12:30:36 AM »
.......and of course, trading history between the UK and Ireland goes back way before the European Union was ever thought of. Yes there may be a few minor changes but I'm sure the logistics industry will adapt accordingly.
True, but the question is that as an EU member will Ireland be ALLOWED to trade with and through the UK without change should significant change happen in the UK's trading relationship with the EU?  Bare in mind the agreements that pre-date EU membership are now replaced legislation at EU level.  Even with the UK (a natural ally in many things when it comes to EU votes I might add) gone, Ireland are still just one of 27 EU members and totally isolated as an island with no land border to any EU state.  France isn't exactly ideal so far as being the nearest EU (or EFTA, EEA, etc) trading partner is concerned! 

Again, until whatever deal is done is done, we can only speak hypothetically.  But it is far from a black and white issue and one which we all just have to hope is far up the negotiating agenda of both the UK and the EU.
Steve in Belfast (suburbia)

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PaddyL

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Re: is it time for stena/irish ferries to operate a single service ex rosslare
« Reply #50 on: February 17, 2017, 05:09:22 PM »
.......and of course, trading history between the UK and Ireland goes back way before the European Union was ever thought of. Yes there may be a few minor changes but I'm sure the logistics industry will adapt accordingly.

Exactly - traffic will still need to move!


Steven

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Re: is it time for stena/irish ferries to operate a single service ex rosslare
« Reply #51 on: February 18, 2017, 04:36:16 AM »
.......and of course, trading history between the UK and Ireland goes back way before the European Union was ever thought of. Yes there may be a few minor changes but I'm sure the logistics industry will adapt accordingly.

Exactly - traffic will still need to move!
Of course.  Unless the next plan is to starve the people of the UK ;)
Steve in Belfast (suburbia)

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NathanBrady

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Re: is it time for stena/irish ferries to operate a single service ex rosslare
« Reply #52 on: February 18, 2017, 02:26:12 PM »
Might Irish ferries do a Dublin to France boat all week with epsilon when the new boat comes

Steven

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Might Irish ferries do a Dublin to France boat all week with epsilon when the new boat comes
Who knows?  At least they'll have that option (and perhaps the option to retain Epsilon on charter or by purchase).
Steve in Belfast (suburbia)

Webmaster of www.niferry.co.uk
Flickr: www.flickr.com/tarbyonline